Tuesday, February 15, 2011

MBMR and DRB-HICOM

MBM Resources Berhad (MBMR) and DRB-HICOM (DRB) are both stocks that I like. Let’s have a look at both their P/Es and M/B. They both seem very interesting.

DRB has principal activities in automotive, services, and property & infrastructure, below are its automotive investments:
HONDA Malaysia Sdn Bhd. 34%
ISUZU Malaysia Sdn Bhd.49%
SUZUKI Malaysia Automobile Sdn Bhd. 40%
EUROMOBIL Sdn Bhd. 79.05% (distributor of AUDI cars)
MITSUBISHI Motors Malaysia 37.94%
Edaran Otomobil Nasional Berhad 79.05% (EON); (Marketing of Proton Vehicles, spare parts and servicing)
USF-HICOM 100 % - Selling 4WDs and MPVs
Motorcycles: Modenas (70%), Honda (48%), Yamaha (45%) & Suzuki (29%).
DRB is also first assembler of Mercedes S Class outside of Germany
Growth prospect: Just tied up with Volkswagen to assembly 40,000 – 50,000 cars annually in Pekan at a cost share basis of DRB 70% Volkswagen 30%. Assembly for 1.8l Passat will begin as soon as this November.


MBMR has principal activities in manufacturing, leisure and motor trading. Below are its automotive investments:
Daihatsu Malaysia Sdn Bhd 71.5%
Federal Auto Holdings Berhad 86% (distributor of Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi & FAST cars)
Hino Motors Sdn Bhd 42% (commercial vehicles)
Perodua 20% (excluding another 5% held through Daihatsu Malaysia Sdn Bhd)


UMW – Assembly and distribute Toyota vehicles. Corporate website explains UMW:
UMW is a leading industrial enterprise with diverse and global interests in the automotive, equipment, manufacturing and engineering, and oil and gas industries. The UMW Group has expanded beyond Malaysian shores; we now also have an international presence in Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, Australia, Taiwan, China, India, the United Arab Emirates and Turkmenistan.
UMW also owns 38% of Perodua


Tchong corporate profilte:
Franchise holder and exclusive distributor of Nissan passenger and lightweight commercial vehicles and Renault in Malaysia. Tchong has two assembly plants in Malaysia with combined capacity of producing 31,000 units. In December 2009, Tchong obtained an Investment Certificate from Danang Industrial and Export Processing Zones Authority, Vietnam to undertake the manufacturing, assembly and sale of buses, trucks and passenger cars, provision of after-sales services and sale of spare parts. Tchong also has sole and exclusive rights to distribute Nissan brand completely built-up (CBU) vehicles in Cambodia and Laos.

Referring to bottom table, Tchong and UMW have high PEs in the industry probably attributing to the fact that they have strong growth opportunities overseas (esp. for Tchong in emerging markets).
DRBHICOM looks set to be a growth story with its Volkswagen foray, with its PE trading below Tchong and UMW. I like to compare DRBHICOM to only Tchong and UMW because Volkswagen/ Nissan/ Toyota are more comparable as a group since they all make reliable and high quality cars.
Tchong
EPS (cent)
0.2722

14-Feb Price ($)
5.01

PE
18.40558

NTA ($)
2.5

M/B
2.004

UMW
EPS (cent)
0.4355

14-Feb Price ($)
7.22

PE
16.57865

NTA ($)
3.59

M/B
2.011142

DRBHICOM
EPS (cent)
0.15

14-Feb Price ($)
2.05

PE
13.66667

NTA ($)
2.5

M/B
0.82

DRB may be still a mixed bag of assets a little bit like Sime Darby (a conglomerate having automotive investments as well). This could explain why its potential full value has not been unlocked thus its share price is still trading below book value and its PE trading far below UMW and Tchong. This is why there were rumours on 9 Dec 2010 that its controlling shareholder Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al Bukhary would like to privatise this conglomerate; obviously with the possibility of reshuffling its DRB’s business and relisting them in different units.


MBMR on the other hand appears to be a significantly undervalued company with a strong balance sheet, low debt (long term borrowings of RM14.5m for qtr ending 30/9/2010 against total assets of RM1.3b) and healthy cash flows. Its low PE may explain its nature as an investment holding company within a stable environment. However, I strongly believe there is plenty of room for its share price to appreciate.
Growth prospect: Perodua is looking to launch a new model very soon, one with an engine slightly larger than the Myvi and with other technological advancements simultaneously maintaining a competitive price.
MBMR
EPS (cent)
0.4666

14-Feb Price ($)
3.2

PE
6.858123

NTA ($)
4.08

M/B
0.784314



Proton: The story for Proton trading WAY below its book value is because it is simply Proton. I guess anyone here would just understand. Proton has long been a laggard in the car industry and produces cars that are obviously less reliable than its peers Volkswagen/ Nissan and Toyota which has a lot of history. The only reason for it still surviving is all the protectionism given to it. It deserves to be undervalued; it is also trading at very high P/Es, after recovering from financial losses in recent years. Its growth strategies (investing heavily in LOTUS, sponsoring F1 & still unsuccessful in finding a foreign partner) also do not seem promising at this point in time.
Proton
EPS (cent)
0.154

14-Feb Price ($)
4.32

PE
28.05195

NTA ($)
9.85

M/B
0.438579




Friday, February 11, 2011

Golden Palm Growers Berhad VS. Country Heights Growers Scheme

Golden Palm Growers Berhad (GPGB) and Country Heights Growers Scheme (CHGS) are both palm oil management companies. They sell out plots of palm oil (quarter acre called grower’s plot) for the retail investors. CHGS led with this initiative (with its marketing efforts beginning from March 2007) and not only until only recently followed by GPGB (late 2010 till now). Both companies guarantee a return during the planting phase with CHGS paying out 8% for the first 3 years and GPGB paying out 6% for the first 6 years. The subsequent yields during the harvest phase will depend on the concurrent market CPO price. The current average spot settlement price of FCPO on January 2011 is RM3806. The bottom tables and graphs show what yields will be like following its subsequent CPO price.

CHGS payout during harvest phase:

GPGB payout during harvest phase:

At current FCPO price we will draw our attention to the green line on the above chart. Note that GPGB will only be paying out 6% of grower’s fee until 2016, then only realising returns from the indicative green line as above.
2010: Planting begins
2011: Phase 1 completes (30%)
2012: Phase 2 completes
2013: Phase 3 completes
2014: First harvest
2016: Full commercial yield

Let’s assume a hypothetical investment amount of RM100,000 being each invested into Fixed Deposits (we have to assume a ridiculous rule here; that is FD is fixed at 3% for 23 years), CHGS and GPGB. The below table will show at which years CHGS and GPGB will take to earn the same amount an FD will take to earn in 23 years (no inflationary adjustments are made).


Year
FD

CHGS

GPGB

3%
Payoff

Payoff

0
100000

100000

100000
1
103000
8000
108000
6000
106000
2
106090
8000
116000
6000
112000
3
109272.7
8000
124000
6000
118000
4
112550.9
12000
136000
6000
124000
5
115927.4
12000
148000
6000
130000
6
119405.2
12000
160000
6000
136000
7
122987.4
12000
172000
15000
151000
8
126677
12000
184000
18000
169000
9
130477.3
12000
196000
20000
189000
10
134391.6
12000
208000
21000
210000
11
138423.4
12000
220000
21000
231000
12
142576.1
12000
232000
21000
252000
13
146853.4
12000
244000
21000
273000
14
151259
12000
256000
21000
294000
15
155796.7
12000
268000
21000
315000
16
160470.6
12000
280000
21000
336000
17
165284.8
12000
292000
21000
357000
18
170243.3
12000
304000
20000
377000
19
175350.6
12000
316000
18000
395000
20
180611.1
12000
328000
15000
410000
21
186029.5
12000
340000
N/A

22
191610.3
12000
352000
N/A

23
197358.7
12000
364000
N/A



* Both CHGS and GPGB will take less than 10 years to make what and FD will make in 23 years (assuming CPO is trading at current market price).
*CHGS and GPGB begins Year 1 with its principal added back to its interest because it is assumed that the growers plot can be re-sold at purchase price. GPGB guarantees a buyback of the growers plot after year 2016.

CHGS has a higher payoff than GPGB for the first 10 years of the scheme. However, it is worth noting that both programs kick off at different periods.

Investors would have missed out on CHGS because its offer period closed sometime in 2008. However, investors can still take opportunity of the GPGB as they are still conducting their sales. In my opinion, this is a great chance for investors to diversify their investment pool and be a direct planter (because this is the closest you get to, if you want to sit in the comfort of your own home) and investor to take advantage of Malaysia’s largest commodity export.

Further details can be found on: